Month: March 2020

GF Securities Guo Lei: Six Key Points of Politburo Meeting

GF Securities Guo Lei: Six Key Points of Politburo Meeting

[Guangfa Macro Guo Lei]Six key points of the Politburo meeting Guo Lei Macro Tea House author Guang Lei Chief Macro Analyst Guo Lei Guo Guo Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 19, one of the contents of the meeting was to analyze and study the current economic situation,Deploy current economic work.

Regarding 深圳spa会所 the spirit of this meeting, we briefly reminded several points: Key point one: “Overall stability” and “downward pressure” are mentioned at the same time.

The Politburo meeting pointed out that the first quarter of the economy was “overall stable and better than expected”, but at the same time there was still a judgment that “there are still many difficulties and problems in economic operation, the external economic environment is generally tightening, and the domestic economy is subject to downward pressure.”It means that the counter-cyclical policy does not rule out a second-order inflection point, but it does not turn around.

Because it was judged to be “overall stable”, last December ‘s Politburo meeting ‘s “Further Stabilizing Employment, Robust Finance, Robust Foreign Trade, Robustness, Robust Investment, Robust 四川耍耍网 Expectations” were not mentioned anymore, but “active fiscal policies need to be more effective”The prudent monetary policy needs to be moderately tight.” The statement continued the statement made by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year.

  Key point two: “Stable demand in the form of supply-side structural reforms.”

The meeting was mainly aimed at “stabilizing demand by means of supply-side structural reforms”. We understand that it is aimed at stabilizing demand by reducing costs and making up for shortcomings.Cost, increase efforts to make up for shortcomings in areas such as infrastructure. ”

We can continue to pay attention to the continuity of policy directions such as reducing fees and taxes, reducing financing costs, and supplementing shortcomings in infrastructure.

  Key point three: “Open up to the outside world at a high level to promote deep reform.”

The leaders of the meeting should “stabilize growth, promote reform, adjust the structure, benefit people’s livelihood, prevent risks, and maintain stability.” Among them, “maintaining stability” was newly stated at the Politburo meeting in December last year.

Behind “steady growth” is “promoting reform.”

The meeting proposed “to consolidate the overall situation of economic and social stability through the new progress of reform, opening up and structural adjustment,” and “to promote deep reform at a high level of opening up and opening up.”

At the press conference on macroeconomic operation on April 18, it was pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission and the SASAC plan to start the fourth batch of mixed reform pilots.

  Key point 4: “Accelerate the structural reform of the financial supply side.”

The meeting chaired “Accelerating Structural Reform on the Financial Supply Side”.

We know that the structural reform of the Chinese economy will focus on each year, such as real estate destocking in 2015-2016, de-capacity and environmental protection in 2016-2017, deleveraging in 2018, and financial supply-side reform is structural reform in 2019.An important point.

During the thirteenth collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on February 22, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that he would “deepen financial supply-side reforms” and “promote the development of the financial industry.”

Regarding how to deepen the financial supply side, the thirteenth collective study of the Politburo focused on the banking system, capital markets, and a multi-level financial support service system (“To build a multi-level, wide-coverage, differentiated banking system”, “toBuild a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic, and valuable capital market “,” Generate a diversified, multi-level financial support service system such as venture capital, bank credit, bond markets, and stock markets “).

  Key point five: “Do not live in real estate” and “Policy according to the city.”

The focus of the meeting was not on speculation and “a consensus on one city and one policy. Because of city policy, the long-term adjustment mechanism for the main responsibility of the city government.”

Housing and housing speculation has been the main tone of real estate policy in recent years, but the Politburo meeting on December 13 last year has changed. Regarding the corresponding content of the real estate market, this Politburo meeting may mean that the policy will increase housing prices.The emergence is a bit vigilant.

However, the principle of city policy and the responsibility of the city government means that it will not be replaced by a knife. The policy is more prominent in the local housing market that is stable according to the actual situation in various places to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

  Key point six: “Promote the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovation.”

The meeting was held “To promote the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovations, and to really change the registration system for securities issuance with information disclosure as the core”, which again showed the understanding of the capital market strategy.In two years, “key institutional innovation” is worth looking forward to.

  Core Assumption Risks: Economic Downside Pressure Exceeds Expectations; External Environmental Risks Exceed Expectations

Semir Apparel (002563): Children’s clothing leader continues to maintain rapid growth and reform of casual wear business is progressing steadily

Semir Apparel (002563): Children’s clothing leader continues to maintain rapid growth and reform of casual wear business is progressing steadily

Investment Highlights: Event: The company announced its semi-annual report, and its revenue increased by 48 in 19H1.

6% to 82.

1.9 billion, net profit attributable to mother increased by 8.

2% to 7.

2.2 billion.

In the second quarter alone, the company’s revenue increased by 35.

8% to 41.

2.0 billion, net profit attributable to mother increased by 5.

7% to 3.

7.5 billion.

The company’s main business has developed steadily in 19H1. Children’s clothing continued to grow rapidly to consolidate its leading position, and adult clothing reform continued to make progress.

The company’s sustainable business continued to grow steadily in 19H1, with revenue increasing by 21.

8% to 67.

400 million, of which 19Q2 increased by 13.

2% to 34.


(1) In terms of categories, the casual wear business increased by 12 in 19H1.

2% to 29.

4.4 billion, gross profit margin increased by 2.

25pct to 37.

18%; 19H1 in the children’s clothing business increased by nearly 30% to 37.

2.9 billion, continue to consolidate the position of the industry leader.

(2) Sub-channel segment growth rate, Semir’s integrated business online revenue increased by 29.

9% to 20.

8.5 billion, becoming an important driver of growth; meanwhile, the internal business offline revenue also maintained 18.

5% growth, the scale reached 46.

5 billion.

(3) In terms of the number of channels, the number of 3,858 casual wear stores in 19H1 increased by 28 compared with the beginning of 19, with a slight increase in total area; 5,546 alternative children’s wear channels increased by 253 compared with the beginning of 19, accounting for 4% of the total increase.

The healthy growth of offline business indicates that the company’s (1) adult wear field includes women’s in-house products, category expansion brought by new categories such as shoes, upgrade of store experience, and attempts to launch new products through cooperation with IP, which have begun to show results;(2) The sustainable scale advantage and continuously updated products in the field of children’s clothing, and its store image, continue to strengthen its industry leader.

The increase in casual wear gross margin drove the preliminary main business profit to exceed expectations.

The company’s overall business 19H1 operating profit increased by 28.

1% to 11.

1 billion, the profit growth rate exceeds the level of revenue growth, we think this is related to the company’s 19H1 casual wear business gross profit margin increased 2.

25pct to 37.

18% is related. At the same time, the company’s overall operation efficiency has also improved.

Kidiliz may increase slightly, and integration continues.

Kidiliz brought 15 to the company in 19H1.

40,000 yuan income, operating profit may be 1.1.1 billion.

Although KIDILIZ is still flawed, while the company continues to make structural adjustments, its brands such as Absorba and Catimini have begun to open stores in China and gradually explore the Chinese market.

Inventories / receivables extended their penetration, but the improvement from the 杭州桑拿 previous quarter was still on the rise.

In 19Q2, the company’s inventory and accounts receivable reached 42.


500 million, a five-year growth of 59% / 74%.

The increase in inventory led to an increase in inventory and accounts receivable due to consolidation, and an increase in the proportion of online businesses directly operated by the company led to an increase in inventory.

The increase in accounts receivable was brought about by the expansion of franchise scale.

However, the ratio of accounts receivable of the company decreased by 2 from 19Q1.

200 million, accounts receivable turnover days also have a downward trend for decades; the scale of inventory is relatively stable, and the overall statement is still improving.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Based on the company’s excellent profit performance 武汉夜网论坛 in 19H1, we expect the company’s gradual main business in 19 years to grow by close to 20% on the basis of excluding the Kidditz consolidation and the one-time impairment impact of about 1.8 billion profit scaleAt the same time, Kidiliz is expected to bring more than 200 million operating results in 19 years, so the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 19 years will reach about 1.9 billion.

Taken together, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased by 13 in 19/20/21.

0% / 15.

3% / 15.

0% to 19.



400 million US dollars, corresponding to an estimated 17/15 / 13X. As a leading white horse in the field of children’s wear and casual wear, it has a stable report and is expected to receive more long-term funds. Maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Retail sales are cold, exhibit stores and same-store growth are less than expected, after the acquisition, the synergy effect is not realized as planned

Hongfa (600885): Single-quarter revenue growth picks up, continuous technical reforms consolidate core competitiveness

Hongfa (600885): Single-quarter revenue growth picks up, continuous technical reforms consolidate core competitiveness

Incident Description The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue 68 in 2018.

800 million, an increase of 14 in ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

0 ppm, a 10-year increase of 2.

0%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deduction.

5 ppm, an increase of ten years.


Incident Comment The revenue growth rate in the fourth quarter returned to 21%, and the decrease in gross profit margin affected the growth rate of performance.

In 2018, the company’s global market share of relays exceeded 14%.

In the single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 18 in 2018Q4.

3 trillion, a quarterly increase of 21%, 北京夜网 single quarter revenue growth rate returned to about 20% after 2017Q3, in addition to the benefit base effect, it is expected that the company’s power, high-voltage DC and other products may become the main driver of revenue growth:The power relay is an electric meter downstream. According to the information provided by the State Grid e-commerce platform, State Grid ‘s smart meter bidding volume in the second half of 2018 was approximately 30 million units, an increase of approximately 80%; 2) The downstream of high-voltage DC products is mainly electric vehicles.In the fourth quarter of 2018, domestic electric vehicle production reached 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37%. At the same time, it is expected that the company’s overseas benchmark customers will continue to break through, and it is expected to contribute to the 佛山桑拿网 future.

In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 36.

8%, a decrease of 3 per year.


It is expected that exchange rate fluctuations are one of the influencing factors (the company’s 9 overseas subsidiaries use local standard currency for accounting); the expense ratio during the period is almost flat, and the management expense ratio has increased by 1.

1pct (including R & D expenses), the financial expense ratio decreased by 0 due to exchange gains.

7 points.

Accounts receivable improved month-on-month, and cash flow remained good.

As for other financial indicators, the company’s accounts receivable and bills receivable balance at the end of 201823.

5 trillion, a decrease of 2 trillion compared with the end of the third quarter of 2018; the account receivable turnover rate in 2018 was 4.

26, basically the same as in previous years.

In terms of cash flow, the annual operating cash flow in 2018 was approximately 8.

300 million.

The overall operation remains stable.

The automation rate has continued to increase, and the advantages of mass production of fine electrical products have been continuously consolidated.

At present, the company has realized the entire industrial chain layout of “mould-components-equipment-assembly” and formed a very significant core competitiveness, that is, the quality control and cost control ability mastered in the production of large-scale fine electrical products.

In 2018, the company continued to carry out high-level technological transformation and promotion (4.

800 million) to achieve automation transformation and upgrades. In the same year, 35% of the production lines were realized, and the per capita efficiency was increased to 63.

80,000 yuan / person.

Maintaining the previous point of view, the core reason for the company’s operating performance in 2018 is the short-term growth instability during the switching period between new and old growth points.

However, the company’s core competitive advantages remain unchanged, new product customers continue to expand rapidly, and capacity expansion remains positive.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2019/2020 will be 8 respectively.


400 million, corresponding to PE is 25/22 times. Maintain recommendation.

Risk Warning: 1.

New energy vehicle production and sales were lower than expected; 2.

New Client Explodes Less Than Expected

China Shenhua (601088) 2019 Interim Review: Rising electricity prices help hedging coal price leaders to achieve stable performance

China Shenhua (601088) 2019 Interim Review: Rising electricity prices help hedging coal price leaders to achieve stable performance

Event: The company announced its 2019 Interim Report, reporting that the company achieved operating income of US $ 116.4 billion, an increase of 9% for ten consecutive years; net profit attributable to mothers was US $ 24.2 billion, an increase of 6%.

The gross profit margin of the coal business was stable, and the increase in taxes and fees led to a slight decrease in profits.

The company achieved 217 million tons of coal sales in 2019H1, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, of which 75 million tons of purchased coal sales, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; at the production end, the company produced 145 million tons of commercial coal in 2019H1, which was flat for a year, of whichThe annual increase of 4 million tons in Harwusu was replaced by the impact of the Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia mine disaster.

On the price side, the company’s comprehensive content realized in 2019H1 is 420 yuan / ton, and it will be reduced by 12 yuan / ton in the future. At the same time, the average price of Qingang 5500 kcal coal in 2019H1 will be 605 yuan / ton, a reduction of 58 yuan / ton.The decline in the share of coal and the weak market are the main reasons for reducing pressure.

On the cost side, the company’s production cost per ton of coal decreased by 2 yuan / ton to 111 yuan / ton (reduction in depreciation and maintenance costs), and the outsourcing cost per ton of coal fell by 28 yuan / ton to 321 yuan / ton, saving the cost side.Basically offsetting the pressure on the price side, the company’s coal business gross profit margin remained at the level of 29% in 2019H1, which was flat for many years.

However, affected by the adjustment of Shaanxi resource tax and the increase of expenses, the operating income of the coal business decreased by 11% to 19.3 billion US dollars.

The installed utilization hours decreased slightly, and the main reason for the increase in the unit’s gross profit came from price increases.

The contraction of the company’s power business revenue, cost and other scale indicators mainly came from the meter output of 30.82 million kilowatts of installed power plants in 19 power plants that began on February 1. Of the 31.03 million kilowatts of installed capacity, coal-fired power units still accounted for 97%.

The company’s 2019H1 coal-fired unit utilization hours decreased by 6%. Under the assumption that the loss rate is more than flat, the company’s 2019H1 power generation 天津夜网 decline is also 6%.

On the price side, the company’s electricity price is 0.

323 yuan / degree, an increase of 0 in ten years.

016 yuan / degree.

On the cost side, the company’s thermal coal is mainly self-supplied. In the first half of 2019, the self-supplied volume was 88%. The price per ton of coal excluding tax was 377 yuan / ton, which was gradually reduced by 15 yuan / ton.

003 yuan, but the decline was replaced by rising depreciation and amortization and other costs.

With the help of price, the company’s electricity gross profit rose to zero.

At RMB 088, the gross profit margin of the power business increased by 5 percentage points to 26%, and the profit of the power business was basically stable.

The increase in investment income comes from the joint venture plant, which is less efficient than the listed platform.

The company’s investment income in 2019H1 was 1.9 billion US dollars, with an annual increase of 487%. The most significant increase came from the confirmation of 1.1 billion investment income when the 30.82 million kilowatts were installed and delivered to the joint venture. After the delivery, it was between June 30 and June 30.The operating income was recognized at 2 ppm.

The remaining increase is mainly due to the company’s purchase of wealth management products expired refunds of $ 400 million.

The installed output capacity of the company accounts for 50% of the company’s total power generation installed capacity, but the revenue and operating costs of the power business are approximately 40% of the scale, and the operating income has only contracted by 13%, which means that the installed efficiency of the installed part is relatively low.

From another perspective, listed companies take 42.

53% of the shareholdings from the joint venture confirmed investment gains of only 1 from February to June.

8 trillion, that is, the joint venture company has only achieved a size equivalent to the existing installed capacity of listed companies.

The net profit of 800 million US dollars attributable to mothers, while listed companies achieved US $ 4.7 billion in pre-consolidation (pre-tax) income of US $ 4.7 billion in the first six months, which is basically not on the order of magnitude.

Investment suggestion: According to the financial model, maintain the projected net profit attributable to the mother of USD 43.1 billion in 2019, calculated based on the 40% dividend ratio, and the daily replacement ratio calculated on August 23.

8%, PE is 8.

3 times.

Under the expectation of the bottom of the coal price, the bottom estimate of the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2020 will change by 405 trillion, based on daily exchange gains calculated on August 23,4.

5%, PE is 8.

8 times.

Overall, we maintain the value revaluation logic proposed in the in-depth report, maintaining 29.

Target price of 88 yuan / share.

Risk Warning: The bottom of coal price policy is expected to fail.

SAIC Group (600104): Stable operation of independent brands in 2018

SAIC Group (600104): Stable operation of independent brands in 2018

Event Company released its 2018 annual report: gradually realized revenue of 9,022 megabytes, each time +3.

6%; net profit attributable to mother is 3.6 million yuan, +4 for the whole year.

7%; deduct non-net profit 3.24 million yuan, ten years -1.

5%; expected earnings (EPS) 3.

08 yuan, +4 for ten years.

2%; estimated average return on equity (ROE) 15.

67%, a decrease of 1 from the previous year.

2 units.

According to the report average (2018), the company’s automobile production and sales were 6.98 million and 7.75 million vehicles, each -0.

1% / + 1.


At the same time, the 2018 dividend distribution plan was issued, 12 for every 10 shares.

60 yuan (including tax), the dividend ratio is 41%, corresponding to today’s closing price dividend rate of 4.


The submission was affected by the sluggish industry boom, the scope and data of the fourth quarter changed, joint ventures, and independent trends diverged.

Facing the cold winter of the auto market in 2018, the Group’s sales have strengthened against the trend, its operations have stabilized, and its turnover has increased1.

8%, 5 higher than the overall market.

6 averages, driving total revenue growth by 3.

At 6%, the leader further increased its leading edge to achieve expansion, which is in line with our industry view over the past year.

In operation, the company’s profit and non-net profit decreased by 1.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the single quarter revenue and non-net profit deductions were respectively 13.

4% / 21.

7%, the first is that in the second half of the year when the industry is in a downturn, the joint venture brand has changed, and the independent brand has grown strongly against the trend; at the same time, the company’s merger of non-recurring profit and loss items increased by 2.1 billion US dollars, mainly due to government subsidies increased by 900 million US dollarsAnd after the subsidiary Huayu Automobile has completed the Xiaoying headlights, the divisible premium 杭州夜网论坛 of its original holder is recognized in the current investment income.

[Joint venture brands]SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, and SAIC-GM-Wuling continue to expand the top four of domestic vehicle sales, actively grasp the trend of consumption upgrades, and accelerate the deployment of high-end products.

SAIC Volkswagen ‘s highest sales volume was 2.06 million units, which was the same as last year. The sales model Tiguan and Touran performed well. In the future, we expect the SAIC Audi project to accelerate its implementation and help SAIC to enter the luxury market.

The highest sales of SAIC-GM / SAIC-GM-Wuling were 1.97 / 207 million units, once -1.

5% /-3.

7%, effective proactive destocking will be implemented in the second half of the year, and wholesale inventory at the end of the year will be at least -18% / 6武汉夜网论坛0%.

The initial joint venture contributed US $ 25.9 billion in investment income, -8% per year, mainly due to the increased product promotion efforts of the joint venture brand in the process of active destocking.

[Independent Brand]Behind the strong growth is the result of core technology enhancement.

Roewe and MG initially achieved sales of 730,000 units, +36 per year.

5%; of which, sales of new energy vehicles are 9.

70,000 vehicles, + 119% a year.

While selling self-owned brand products, we must also explore the key layout of SAIC’s electric intelligence: 1) In the electric field, the company’s new round of “Sandian” core technology innovation and the development of a new electric vehicle exclusive architecture continue to advance.Infineon has achieved mass production and delivery of IGBT products, and the pilot power of fuel cell (SAIC 300) trial production has reached the world’s leading level; 2) In the intelligent field, it has deepened cross-border cooperation with industry giants such as Alibaba, Mobileye, China Mobile and Huawei.

The investment expansion trend remains unchanged, and the short-term performance pressure is expected to continue into the second quarter of 1919.

The automobile consumption cycle has shifted from destocking to de-capacity. In the future, inefficient production capacity is gradually cleared. SAIC is expected to realize the survival of the fittest, and is optimistic about the long-term competition pattern of leading companies.

In the short term, according to Tianfeng Motor’s investment clock, the industry cycle inflection point is expected to come in the middle of 19 years. In the first and second quarters, the entire vehicle will still face pressure for performance changes.

Earnings forecast: Reduce the net profit attributable to mothers for the period of 2019-2020 to US $ 37.2 / 39.9 billion (down from the previous 38.5 / 40.8 billion), corresponding to PE 8.3/7.

8 times.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: downside risks to the auto market; sales of old models fail to meet expectations; new models are not listed as expected

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019H1 Review: Blood products meet expectations and are about to enter vaccine harvest season

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019H1 Review: Blood products meet expectations and are about to enter vaccine harvest season

Event: On August 29, the company announced the 2019 semi-annual report, reporting that a series of companies realized revenue14.

0.2 million yuan, an increase of 16 over the same period last year.

77%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 11 over the same period last year.

94%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

61 ppm, an increase of 14 over the same period last year.


Guoyuan’s point of view: The overall gross profit margin fluctuates, the net profit margin increases the reported range, and the company’s overall gross profit margin is stable at 59.

25% (-0.

84pct), the net interest rate rose significantly to 35.

51%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

61pct; during the period, vaccine sales increased in the first half of the year, and the sales expense ratio decreased to 7.

17%, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.

45 points; operating cash flow 5.

3.9 billion (+41.

47%), which basically matches the net profit.

The 19H1 blood products were in line with expectations, and the excess plasma boosted expectations in the second half of the performance report. The company’s blood products segment revenue was 13.

8.2 billion (accounting for 98.

58%), an increase of 20 over the same period last year.


According to the wholesale data approved by the China Inspection Institute and various localities, the company’s main product batch issuance data was good in the first half of the year. With the growth elasticity brought by destocking, the performance of the blood product segment in the first half of the year was in line with expectations, and there was a large amount of inventory of raw materials to guarantee the second half of the year.As the company grew, the Chongqing company was approved to set up an apheresis plasma station in Liangping to add new pulp sources for the company.

The vaccine has sufficient production capacity in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive performance growth. In the first half of the year, the company’s influenza vaccine production stage, except for some of the influenza vaccines last year, the company’s other vaccines have not been issued, so the first half of the vaccine revenue reached 11.97 million, a decrease of 75.


This year, Hualan Biological still maintains the exclusive production scale of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine. The company’s transformation of #深圳桑拿按摩 1 line of the quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine has been completed and passed GMP certification. The production capacity of the influenza vaccine has been further improved. In August, the company achieved the approval of the influenza split vaccine.Issued 25 years old

220,000, 110 tetravalent influenza decomposition vaccine.

550,000, we expect the company’s quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the second half of the year is expected to achieve 8-10 million sales, the vaccine sector will maintain rapid growth.

Investment advice and profit forecast Hualan Biological has high pulp extraction and production efficiency, and vaccines and monoclonal antibodies help new growth.

We estimate that the company’s operating income for 19-21 will be 40.



64 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

74% / 17.

3北京夜生活网0% / 15.

16%, net profit attributable to mother 14.



30 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

88% / 16.97% / 15.

04%, EPS is 1.



38 yuan / share, corresponding to PE32 / 27/24 times, with a target price of 39.

14 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks indicate that the extraction volume is less than expected, product safety risks, and policy risks.

Chinese boulder (600176): Winter is over and spring is not far away

Chinese boulder (600176): Winter is over and spring is not far away

Event: China Boulder released the 2019 first quarter report on the evening of April 24th.

In Q1 2019, the company realized operating income of 24.

9.6 billion, an increase of 0 in ten years.

06%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

99 ppm, with a ten-year average of 19.

1%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

51 ppm, a ten-year average of 26.


The company’s performance basically met our expectations.

Sales remained stable and margins increased.

According to our calculations, the company’s glass fiber and products sales in the first quarter were 39.

Around 4%, it fluctuates slightly by 1% every year. Among them, due to the shift in sales in January and February, the company’s sales have obviously recovered since March, and the inventory no longer increases.

However, due to 1) the newly added production capacity was concentrated in 2018 (the total number of roving electronic yarns was about 105, including a number of high-end and high-end product capacities), the price change in the first quarter of 2019 (we calculated the price change) 3.

7% to 5929 yuan / ton, the company’s caliber has fallen for many years.

9%), 2) the increase in natural gas purchase prices, increased production costs, increased solid depreciation and increased labor costs (we estimate that the company’s Q1 cost rose 3).

5% to 3487 yuan / ton), the company’s gross profit per ton for ten consecutive years12.

4% to 2442 yuan / ton, resulting in a decrease in net profit; financial expenses and ton fees have increased: due to the company’s debt financing in the first quarter 佛山桑拿网 of 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio increased slightly by one in the first quarter of 2019To to 52.

95%, while exchange loss gains and losses are basically the same as last year, and financial costs increase by 5100 million per year (measured ton financial costs increase by about 110 yuan / ton in the first quarter of 2018). At the same time, due to the increase in transportation and storage costs, the company’s salesThe rate of increase (estimated) ton sales expenses increased by 65 yuan / ton per year), while the increase of three ton fees has reduced the company’s profit more and more.

In addition, the increase in research and development costs and the decrease in non-recurring income have also affected the company’s profits to a certain extent; 19Q1 is the bottom of the interim results, and the inflection point has come: We believe that 2019Q1 is the potential industry and the bottom of the company, and the inflection point has arrived:1) After the new capacity is digested in 2018, the new capacity is expected to be significantly reduced to 39 feet in 2019 (Thai Glass F07 and technical transformation, Chongqing International put into operation a new line in March and San Lei is expected to start a new line by the end of the year)The small enterprise bankruptcy brings the cost support and the acceleration of the industry’s differentiated development. We believe that the inflection point in the fiberglass industry has emerged; 2) Conversion demand is picking up (the company has reached full production and sales in April, and sales are expected to increase by 10%).The ramp-up of production capacity in 2018 and the commissioning of the US production line in 2019 (it is expected to ignite at the end of May and the capacity will be increased to 9.

6 bill), we believe that the company’s sales volume in 2018 will still achieve an increase in growth; 3) the end of negotiations with the Jiaxing government (according to this understanding, the final natural gas cost rose only 0).

1 yuan / cubic meter) and lower sales costs due to lower inventory, the company’s cost-side pressure has gradually gradually resolved; investment advice: Based on a more cautious forecast of the company’s high-end product prices, we cut the company’s 2019/2020 profit forecast to 25.


6 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

5% / 20.

1%, EPS0.


87 yuan, adjust the target price to 14.

86 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating; risk warning: demand exceeds expectations, costs rise more than expected.

Preliminary discussions on national debt and local debt financing: better support for monetary and fiscal policy coordination

Preliminary discussions on national debt and local debt financing: better support for monetary and fiscal policy coordination

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: Gradually talking about the integration of national debt and local debt into social finance: better support for monetary and fiscal policy coordination Since December 2019, the People’s Bank of China has further improved the statistics of social financing scale, including “national debt” and “local government general bonds”Separate the statistics of social financing scale and combine it with the previous “local government special bonds” into the “government bond” indicator.

The indicator value is the face value of the escrow agency.

The historical data of the monthly additions date back to January 2017.

  On January 16, Ruan Jianhong, Director of the Long-term Survey and Statistics Division, said at a press conference that the scale of social financing is a very important statistical indicator. Since its announcement in 2011, it has better reflected the strength of financial support for the real economy. Social financingThe statistical indicator of scale is roughly divided into two categories, one is credit, such as loans, entrusted loans, bonds, acceptance bills, etc., and the other is equity equity financing.

Since the release of indicators in 2011, we have been improving statistics in a timely manner in accordance with the state of economic and financial development to better reflect the strength of financial support for the real economy.

  Ruan Jianhong said that on the basis of comprehensive evaluation and systematic research, in 2018, asset-backed securities, loan write-offs and local government special bonds have gradually replaced the scale of social financing. In the process, whether all the bonds need to be replacedIncorporate social financing to do adequate research and expert demonstration.

  ”From the perspective of international experience and our statistical practice, including the stability of indicators, it should be said that all government bonds are now included in the scale of social financing. This condition is relatively mature.

Ruan Jianhong said.

  Ruan Jianhong also said that in addition to statistical practice, this adjustment is also conducive to policy formulation and implementation.

  ”This indicator now reflects both monetary and fiscal policies. To meet the needs, objectively it also needs an indicator that can comprehensively reflect the scale of monetary and fiscal policies that can affect its credit scale. The issue of government bonds is fiscalAn 杭州评茶阁 important part of the policy, dividing government bonds into social financing scales can better support the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies.

Ruan Jianhong said.
  Talking about the stability of the social financing scale data after the revised caliber, Ruan Jianhong said that after the national debt and general government debt were included in the social financing scale statistics, the overall stability remained, and the social financing stock at the end of 2019 was 251.

At 31 trillion yuan, the balance of government bonds is 37.

73 trillion yuan, the proportion of the scale of social financing scale stock is 15%, after the improvement of social financing scale growth is 10.

7%, 10.

7% is 0 lower than the growth rate before perfection.

1 average.

  ”In the future, the UN General Assembly will continue to pay attention to your comments on the social 四川耍耍网 financing scale indicator based on the development of social financial activities in the whole society, and we will also assess the impact of various developments on this indicator. There may still be some factual improvements in the future to make financial statistics goalsBetter reflect changes in financial activity.

Ruan Jianhong said.

Continued weight loss helps lower the risk of breast cancer in middle-aged and elderly women

Continued weight loss helps lower the risk of breast cancer in middle-aged and elderly women
A study led by the American Cancer Society has shown that women aged 50 years and over who reduce weight for years can reduce their risk of cancer.This association is more pronounced in the body of overweight women, and the more weight loss, the magnitude of risk reduction.  Researchers analyzed data from previous 10 prospective studies on diet and cancer risk, which involved living in the United States, Australia and Asia totaling nearly 18.10,000 women aged 50 and over.None of them had cancer at the beginning of the study, with a median follow-up time of 8.For 3 years, nearly 7,000 people developed diabetes during the study period.Researchers measured their weights at the beginning 淡水桑拿网 of the study, and at 5 and 9 years after the study began.At the second measurement, the median body mass index (BMI) was 25.1. The median BMI increased to 25 at the third measurement.6.  After taking into account exercise habits, whether to use hormonal drugs or similar known risk factors, the researchers found that the more the study subjects reduced their risk of cancer if they continued to lose weight and change amplitude.Among those who did not use hormone therapy, their weight remained stable for nearly 10 years, and the range of change did not exceed 2 weight, and they continued to lose weight by about 2 to 4.A 5mm person has a 13% reduction in the risk of terrorism; a weight loss of 4.Risks of $ 5,000 to $ 9,000 are reduced by 16%; debtors who lose more than 9 euros can fall by 26%.In addition, if women lost more than 9 months of weight at the second measurement but later rebounded partially, their cancer risk remains lower than those with stable weight.

Longji shares (601012): planning to expand production to ease supply and demand for single crystals in 2020

Longji shares (601012): planning to expand production to ease supply and demand for single crystals in 2020
This report reads: Longji plans to expand production of 15GW monocrystalline silicon wafers and 3GW batteries in 2020, alleviate the supply and demand of monocrystalline products, and also solidify the growth of the company’s profits, maintaining the “overweight” rating. Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.Adjust the 2018-2020 EPS forecast to 0.76 (-0.22) / 1.17 (-0.35) / 1.71 (-0.51) yuan, adjust the target price to 30.73 (-7.27) Yuan, the adjustment was due to an increase in diluted share capital. Longji recently announced that it has signed an agreement with Yinchuan Economic and Technological Development Zone for the company’s investment in Yinchuan to build a 15GW single crystal silicon rod and wafer project and an annual output of 3GW single crystal battery project. Among them, silicon wafersThe project investment is about 4.3 billion. It is planned to start production in the second half of 2020. The battery project investment is 15.500 million, plans to start production in the first half of 2020. The development of insufficient production capacity, it is very necessary to expand the production of monocrystalline silicon wafers and batteries.Since entering 2019, monocrystalline silicon wafers have run at high levels after price increases, showing that product supply and demand are extremely tight; at the same time, PERC battery prices have decreased from the previous ultra-high profit prices, and have remained high, indicating that the production capacity of PERC batteries is still tight.High-quality capacity is extremely scarce.Longji’s wafer capacity has come to an end after the second phase of Yunnan’s production. Considering the replacement of polycrystalline with single crystals and the trend of photovoltaic installation growth, the next step to continue production expansion is taken for granted; due to the rapid growth of Longji’s modules, increaseThe capacity of its own battery is imminent, and the increase in the volume of self-produced batteries can also ensure the profit level of the module. The placement of funds is in place,南京夜网 and the ultra-high placement rate demonstrates the market’s recognition of Longji.Longji completed the rights issue and raised 38.7.5 billion, with a rights issue ratio of 99.54%.The rights issue attracted Ningxia Leye 5GW high-efficiency battery projects25.400 million, Quzhou Leye 5GW high-efficiency module project10.600 million, supplemented 300 million working capital.The ultra-high ratio of rights shares demonstrates the market’s recognition of Longji shares. catalyst.Monocrystalline wafer prices continued to remain high and new products were introduced. risk warning.There are risks of delay and termination of this project, as well as risks of exchange rate changes in the overseas trading environment.