GF Securities Guo Lei: Six Key Points of Politburo Meeting
[Guangfa Macro Guo Lei]Six key points of the Politburo meeting Guo Lei Macro Tea House author Guang Lei Chief Macro Analyst Guo Lei Guo Guo Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 19, one of the contents of the meeting was to analyze and study the current economic situation,Deploy current economic work.
Regarding 深圳spa会所 the spirit of this meeting, we briefly reminded several points: Key point one: “Overall stability” and “downward pressure” are mentioned at the same time.
The Politburo meeting pointed out that the first quarter of the economy was “overall stable and better than expected”, but at the same time there was still a judgment that “there are still many difficulties and problems in economic operation, the external economic environment is generally tightening, and the domestic economy is subject to downward pressure.”It means that the counter-cyclical policy does not rule out a second-order inflection point, but it does not turn around.
Because it was judged to be “overall stable”, last December ‘s Politburo meeting ‘s “Further Stabilizing Employment, Robust Finance, Robust Foreign Trade, Robustness, Robust Investment, Robust 四川耍耍网 Expectations” were not mentioned anymore, but “active fiscal policies need to be more effective”The prudent monetary policy needs to be moderately tight.” The statement continued the statement made by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year.
Key point two: “Stable demand in the form of supply-side structural reforms.”
The meeting was mainly aimed at “stabilizing demand by means of supply-side structural reforms”. We understand that it is aimed at stabilizing demand by reducing costs and making up for shortcomings.Cost, increase efforts to make up for shortcomings in areas such as infrastructure. ”
We can continue to pay attention to the continuity of policy directions such as reducing fees and taxes, reducing financing costs, and supplementing shortcomings in infrastructure.
Key point three: “Open up to the outside world at a high level to promote deep reform.”
The leaders of the meeting should “stabilize growth, promote reform, adjust the structure, benefit people’s livelihood, prevent risks, and maintain stability.” Among them, “maintaining stability” was newly stated at the Politburo meeting in December last year.
Behind “steady growth” is “promoting reform.”
The meeting proposed “to consolidate the overall situation of economic and social stability through the new progress of reform, opening up and structural adjustment,” and “to promote deep reform at a high level of opening up and opening up.”
At the press conference on macroeconomic operation on April 18, it was pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission and the SASAC plan to start the fourth batch of mixed reform pilots.
Key point 4: “Accelerate the structural reform of the financial supply side.”
The meeting chaired “Accelerating Structural Reform on the Financial Supply Side”.
We know that the structural reform of the Chinese economy will focus on each year, such as real estate destocking in 2015-2016, de-capacity and environmental protection in 2016-2017, deleveraging in 2018, and financial supply-side reform is structural reform in 2019.An important point.
During the thirteenth collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on February 22, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that he would “deepen financial supply-side reforms” and “promote the development of the financial industry.”
Regarding how to deepen the financial supply side, the thirteenth collective study of the Politburo focused on the banking system, capital markets, and a multi-level financial support service system (“To build a multi-level, wide-coverage, differentiated banking system”, “toBuild a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic, and valuable capital market “,” Generate a diversified, multi-level financial support service system such as venture capital, bank credit, bond markets, and stock markets “).
Key point five: “Do not live in real estate” and “Policy according to the city.”
The focus of the meeting was not on speculation and “a consensus on one city and one policy. Because of city policy, the long-term adjustment mechanism for the main responsibility of the city government.”
Housing and housing speculation has been the main tone of real estate policy in recent years, but the Politburo meeting on December 13 last year has changed. Regarding the corresponding content of the real estate market, this Politburo meeting may mean that the policy will increase housing prices.The emergence is a bit vigilant.
However, the principle of city policy and the responsibility of the city government means that it will not be replaced by a knife. The policy is more prominent in the local housing market that is stable according to the actual situation in various places to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Key point six: “Promote the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovation.”
The meeting was held “To promote the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovations, and to really change the registration system for securities issuance with information disclosure as the core”, which again showed the understanding of the capital market strategy.In two years, “key institutional innovation” is worth looking forward to.
Core Assumption Risks: Economic Downside Pressure Exceeds Expectations; External Environmental Risks Exceed Expectations