China Merchants Steamship (601872) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Non-tanker segment drives 18-year performance growth Oil tanker recovery attempts to drive performance to continue upward
Event: China Merchants Shipping released the 2018 annual report, and achieved operating income of 109 during the reporting period.
3 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.
8%; net profit attributable to mother 11.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.
2%, equivalent to 0 EPS.
19 yuan, the performance is in line with the forecast; net profit after deduction of 8.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 157 in ten years.
The company transparency sent a cash dividend of 0.
RMB 058 (including tax). Cash dividends account for 30% of net profit attributable to the mother.
2%, corresponding to the exchange rate of 1 on April 10.
Comments: The VLCC market was extremely sluggish in the first three quarters of 2018, and began to pick up in the fourth quarter.
In the first three quarters of 2018, the average daily rent of the VLCC Middle East-China (TD3C) route was US $ 10,000 / day, a continuous decline of 43%, which was at a historical low.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, due to the improvement in market supply and demand and the peak season caused by the global dismantling of old tankers since 2018, market freight rates have clearly picked up, and the average daily revenue of the VLCC Middle East-China route.
USD 50,000 / day, a 128% increase over ten years.
2018 preliminary VLCC Middle East-China route average daily revenue1.
USD 90,000 / day, basically unchanged from 2017.
In the first quarter of 2019, the average daily rent level of the VLCC Middle East-China route was 2.
USD 80,000 / day, 0 compared with the same period last year.
The extremely low level of $ 80,000 / day has clearly recovered.
Judging from the conventional laws, due to the centralized maintenance of refineries, the second and third quarters are generally the traditional off-season of the VLCC market, and freight rates have a downward pressure in stages.
Affected by the market downturn, the company’s oil shipping business gross margin decreased in 2018 8.
In 2018, the company received the delivery of 5 new VLCC ships, with a total of 50 VLCCs at the end of the year.
The company’s tanker freight volume is estimated at 7,258, an increase of 10 per year.
4%, the operating income of tanker transportation business was 47.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.
2%, gross margin of 14.
4%, more than ten years.
There is a lag in the current market revenue of tanker shipping, which reflects that the estimated value of the VLCC revenue level in 2018 was actually the fixed load from December 2017 to November 2018, which gradually declined 26.
9%. Affected by this, the company’s oil transportation business income level fell.
Benefiting from the increase in freight rates in the dry bulk market and the delivery of new VLOC vessels, the company’s bulk cargo business performance in 2018 improved.
The average BDI index in 2018 was 1353 points, an increase of 18 per year.
1%, while the company received 15 new VLOC vessels.
In 2018, the company’s bulk cargo volume increased by 7747 per year to 16 per year.
The company’s dry bulk business income is 40.
4 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.
6%, gross margin of 23.
6%, an increase of 4 per year.
In the first quarter of 2019, the average value of the BDI index was 798 points, which decreased by 32 each year.
1%, but the company’s immediate bulk freight capacity exceeds the expected impact is limited.
Affected by fierce competition, the gross profit margin of the company’s ro-ro ship business decreased slightly in 2018.
Domestic car sales in 2018 fell 2% year-on-year.
8%. At the same time, the domestic rolling equipment market is fiercely competitive, and freight rates have fallen steadily.
In 2018, the company’s commercial vehicle freight volume was 1156 per year, an increase of 11 year-on-year.
9%, revenue from Ro-Ro ship business13.
4 percent, an increase of 13.
6%, gross margin of 17.
7%, ten years ago 4.
Benefiting from the delivery of new LNG ships, investment income has grown.
In 2018, the company received 5 new LNG ships. All of the company’s LNG ships have long-term contract lock-in revenue. The increase in capacity will bring corresponding increase in revenue.
Realizing investment income in 20182.
10,000 yuan (including LNG business contribution of 1.
800 million), increasing by 0 every year.
Continue to be optimistic about the recovery of the foreign trade oil transportation market.
After the US shale oil revolution, crude oil exports have grown rapidly.
Clarksons predicts that U.S. offshore crude oil exports will reach 2.6 million barrels per day in 2019, and then increase by 900,000 barrels per day, accounting for about 2% of global offshore crude oil exports. The U.S. crude oil pipeline is expected to begin large-scale production in the second half of 2019.By then, US crude oil exports are expected to be heavy.
The transportation distance from the United States to Asia is three times that of the traditional Middle East to Asia. The growth of US exports has gradually increased to increase the turnover. If only the changes in the structure of crude oil exports are considered, it is assumed that the United States increases the global crude oil exports by 2% each year.When shipped to Asia, OPEC reduces the corresponding export volume to Asia. It is expected that the global offshore crude oil turnover will increase by 4%, 4%, and 4% in 2019-2021.
Assume that the annual delivery of new ship orders for 2019-2021 will be restored by 80%. It is expected that new ships will deliver 16.8 million, 12.02 million and 4.66 million DWT in 2019-2021. The IMO sulfur restriction order will take effect at the beginning of 2020. At that time, the promotion of old ships will be accelerated.Assuming 3, 5 and 5 million dwt of shipbreaking in 2019-2021, the capacity growth rate is expected to be 6 in 2019-2021.
Affected by the concentrated delivery of capacity in 2019, there is some pressure on the supply side, but the sulfur restriction order in early 2020 may reduce capacity turnover in the second half of the year; the US exemption for Iran ‘s crude oil export ban continues until early May. If the exemption is cancelled, Iranian tankers (VLCC capacity accounts for 5% of the world) may be partially suspended, which is expected to ease supply pressure.
We think the oil tanker market has entered a recovery cycle and continue to be optimistic about the market’s picking up trend.
Profit forecast and rating.
Assuming that the company’s VLCC daily rent level for 2019-2021 is $ 30,000, $ 40,000, and $ 50,000 per day, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent for 2019-2021 is expected to be 16.
6 trillion, the company’s additional issuance is still in progress, regardless of the additional issuance and dilution, equivalent to 0 EPS.
The company’s recognized April 10, 2019 corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 19, 10.
7 times, corresponding to 1 PB in 2019.
We believe that the oil industry is at the starting point of recovery, and continue to be optimistic about the market’s warming trend. Investors are advised to choose a machine layout and maintain the company’s “prudent increase” rating.
U.S. crude oil export growth exceeds expectations, global crude oil shipping demand exceeds expectations, oil transportation capacity growth exceeds expectations, 重庆耍耍网 changes in oil prices, maritime security incidents, policy risks, and the impact of the Sino-US trade war exceeds expectations