Focus Media (002027) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Results are gradually bottoming out and waiting for the future to bloom
The company released the third quarter report for 2019. The revenue in the third quarter alone is -15% per year, and the attributable net profit is -60% in a row. The company is expected to attribute the attributable net profit to -70% per year.
-65%, the change is narrowed.
We believe that the value of the company’s offline traffic entrance is stable, and the fundamentals have initially set a bottom. Considering the continued promotion of Ali cooperation in the fourth quarter of the e-commerce season and the 2020 European Cup and the Olympics, the performance of the industry and the company will be warmed up.
The company released the third quarter report for 2019: ① In the third quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 31.
9 ‰, -15% a year; operating profit 7.
500 million, five years -15%; net profit 5.
700 million, previously -61%; net profit attributable to mother 5.
800 million, previously -60%; deducted non-attributable net profit 5.
0 ‰, the previous -64%, narrowed the excess.
② The company expects attributable net profit for 2019 of 17.
5 ‰, previously -70%?
-65%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the fourth quarter3.
900 million, previously -62%?
In the third quarter, revenue and profit in the fourth quarter are expected to exceed the range by more than 19Q2. The overall contraction narrowed slightly, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
③ Net cash flow from operations in the third and third quarters.
10,000 yuan (ten years + 221%).
Continue to optimize resource points, operating costs remained flat, and credit impairment losses improved and narrowed.
① Since the first half of 2019, the company’s target capital expansion pace has continued to optimize the resource location. The company’s operating costs have remained flat compared to the previous quarter, with operating costs in the third and third quarters alone.
7 ‰, one year + 1%, corresponding to a gross 无锡桑拿网 profit margin of 48%, +1 chain.
② Single third quarter selling expenses 5.
800 million, sales expense ratio 18.
2%, unchanged from the previous quarter (-0.
③ Accounts receivable of the company at the end of the third quarter43.
300 million yuan, compared with 42 at the end of the second quarter.
6 million US dollars increase, credit impairment loss1.
The decrease of US $ 700 million in the earlier second quarter was US $ 3 billion. This year, due to factors such as bad debts and aging of some customers, the overall credit impairment loss increased, and it is expected that the margin of development will gradually improve.
④ The advance payment at the end of the third quarter is 9.
7 trillion, a decrease of 4 trillion compared with the end of the previous year, showing a downward trend. We believe 失败:重查 that subsequent follow-up companies will continue to optimize resource points, and operating costs are expected to be further controlled.
Fundamentals are expected to gradually build bottom, Ali can continue to advance, the 2020 European Cup, the Olympics and other events triggered a recovery in the company’s performance.
① The structure of advertisers has continued to improve, the proportion of advertisers in consumer products has continued to strengthen, and the degree of advertisers in the new economy has further deteriorated.
At the same time, the cooperation between the company and Ali continues to advance. We expect that the e-commerce promotion festival in the fourth quarter is expected to introduce more advertisers from Ali and accumulate more cases of quality monitoring, and obtain more advertising budgets. At the same time, let advertisers further understand the productsEffective value.
② The company’s short-term expansion rate in the first half of the year, and dynamic adjustment and optimization of resources for early expansion, we expect that there will be limited room for cost increase and growth.
③ The European Cup in the second quarter of 2020 and the Olympic Games in the third quarter are expected to bring advertisers extra weight and drive the company’s performance growth.
The company’s resources have grown in size and its layout has been optimized. The long-term moat has been strengthened, and the company’s long-term value is continuously optimistic.
① Until the end of July 2019, the company’s elevator TV media self-operated equipment 78.
50,000 units (approximately 3 in overseas subsidiaries.
30,000), the number of self-operated elevator poster media reached 195.
With 40,000 units, the company’s media network has covered more than 300 cities in China and nearly 20 major cities in South Korea, Singapore and Peanut.
There are 37 cinema media cooperation theaters, 1,870 theaters contracted, more than 12,500 screens signed, covering 310 cities in China.
② We believe that the company’s resource points are significantly ahead at the city level, the proportion of core office buildings, and the quality of the population. The continuous optimization of the conversion resource layout has accelerated the consolidation of the company’s core resource network.
Risk factors: 1) Downside risks: Ongoing risks of macroeconomic, consumption, and advertising market growth; Expected earnings growth under expansion; industry competition, especially competition with Internet media, exceeds expectations; financial quality increasingly exceeds expectations; short-term pressure to lift the ban.
2) Upside risks: Under the background of the economic recovery and the ad expectation of ad placement, the company’s high operating leverage brings profits, and it is expected to repair quickly.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Combined with the three quarterly report of the company’s operating conditions, we adjust the company’s 2019?
2021 revenue forecast to 12.1 billion / 13.1 billion / 13.9 billion (previous value 13.1 billion / 14.5 billion / 15.6 billion), 2019?
The net profit attributable to mothers in 2021 is forecast to 1.9 billion / 26.
200 million / 31.
1 ppm (previous value: 23).
300 million / 33.
200 million / 37.
600 million), corresponding to EPS prediction of 0.
21 yuan, corresponding to 2019?
PE 47x / 34x / 29x in 2021, the company’s long-term competitiveness and investment value remain stable. At the same time, we believe that the company’s fundamentals are expected to gradually bottom out, considering the continued advancement of Ali cooperation in the fourth quarter of the e-commerce season and the 2020 European Cup, the Olympics, etcThe aim is to bring about a recovery in industry and company performance. In the future, the company ‘s margins are expected to gradually improve. The company ‘s operating leverage is high and its performance is flexible. Taking into account the current valuation level, we upgrade to “Overweight” rating.