Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company comment: performance against the market, high growth and exceeding market expectations Expect 19 years of new product development in multiple channels
2018 Annual Results Express 33.
500 million (+ 240%), net profit attributable to mother 8.
8.6 billion (+65.
Among them, the company headquarters income 10.
4 billion (+ 39%), time interconnection income23.
200 million (+ 868%); net profit attributable to the parent company7.
5.6 billion (+ 49%), net profit attributable to mothers1.
300 million (+ 383%).
Among them, time interconnection income and net profit performed better than expected (the original performance commitment was 18 years 1).
1.7 billion net profit), driving revenue to exceed market expectations.
We expect the monetization rate of the main business to remain stable as a whole (comprehensive service fee / GMV caliber forecast is 4).
4%), in the normal fluctuation range.
Looking at the quarter, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 single quarter revenue of 5 billion (+ 620%) / 7.
3 billion (+302%) / 8.
1 billion (+ 441%) / 13.
100 million (+ 126%); net profit attributable to mother 0.
900 million (+245%) / 2.
0.3 billion (+77%) / 1.
58 billion (+ 53%) / 4.
36 billion (+ 50%).
Q4 is the peak season and the revenue / profit ratio remains the largest.
Profitability has improved from the previous quarter.
The initial net 厦门夜网 profit of the mother is 26.
4%, 18Q4 single quarter return to net profit of 33.
3% (incomparable to 17 years due to time-linked consolidation factors).
Compared with the 22% reported in the third quarter of 2018, we judge that the comprehensive service fee income 18Q4, which is mainly due to high gross profit, is related to the reduction of the income tax rate.
GMV maintained high growth and the number of strong categories increased.
In 2018, the company’s authorized brand products can count GMV up to 205.
2.1 billion (+65.
45%), maintaining high growth.
The eight first-level categories that rank among the top ten in the Ali platform industry are: women’s underwear / men’s underwear / houseware, bedding, men’s clothing, children’s clothing / baby clothing / parent-child clothing, popular men’s shoes, pregnant women’s clothing / maternal /Nutrition, home textiles, clothing accessories / belts / hats / scarves, etc.
The increasing number of strong categories reflects the efficiency of the company’s brand Matthew Effect in expanding new categories.
The accounts receivable of projects such as factoring and time interconnection decreased month-on-month. Dynamically, the overall receivable level continued to improve.
(1) The overall settlement of accounts receivable is.
300 million (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 are 9 at the end of each period.
1/10.800 million), a previous net increase of 2.
22 billion (+43.
In view of the split, the company’s headquarters receivable 4.
100 million (+22.
7%) accounted for 56%; factoring receivables in small bags 1.
9.3 billion, accounting for 26%; time interconnection receivable1.
2.4 billion (+0.
74%) accounted for 18%.
In terms of absolute value, at the end of 2018, the receivables of factoring business dropped significantly from the level of the interim report and the third quarter report. We judge that the main reason is to shrink the loan business of customers unrelated to the company’s main business.
Time Connected’s accounts receivable status has improved significantly in the earlier quarterly report. We judge that the absolute value of single quarter receivables in the fourth quarter has declined and the trend is good.
(2) Factoring business: We believe that the factoring cycle of factoring funds is usually 3 months to 12 months. During the period, the collateral is sufficient, the risk control is strict, and the risk of factoring business is controllable.
Considering that the factoring business is not very relevant to the company’s main business, non-Antarctic customers’ loans have shrunk significantly. It is expected that the factoring business scale will shrink significantly in 2019, which will significantly improve the quality of statements.
The company’s business model is becoming clearer, the Matthew effect is prominent, high-scale GMV is still growing at a high speed, the monetization rate remains relatively stable, and the company’s excellent performance in revenue also confirms its business model barriers.
We believe that Antarctic e-commerce will continue to benefit from the demand for cost-effective products under the shift of economic growth, benefit from the consumption upgrade of low-tier cities and the pursuit of cost-effective products, maintain relatively rapid growth, and is expected to become the largest advantage. High-growth new retailthe company.
Positive changes and highlights in 2019: channels and new cultivated categories provide growth space: We expect that Antarctic e-commerce will continue to maintain relatively high-speed growth on the traditional strong platforms represented by Ali in 2019. JD.com is expected to accelerate growth and fight for multiple platformsStrive to maintain rapid growth of about 150%.
In terms of categories, we estimate the proportion of categories in Antarctic E-commerce in 2018: underwear 30%, men’s clothing 16%, home textiles 15%, children’s clothing 7%, women’s clothing 6%, personal health 5%, mother and baby 5%, luggage and bags with 5%, Shoes 4%, daily use at home 3%, sports outdoor 2%, the other 4%.
We believe that the share of many categories on the Ali platform is still increasing, improving space segmentation.
Emerging channels and expansion categories will still provide the company with higher GMV growth in 2019. It is expected that the GMV scale will reach 30.3 billion in 2019 and the GMV scale will reach 44.7 billion in 2020.
Product quality and tone upgrade: We believe that 2019 is the year of product quality and value for Antarctic e-commerce.
It is expected that in 2019, the company will strictly control quality, improve product tone, increase character configuration, and increase service return visits.
The operating data of the statement is also expected to continue to improve (receivables and cash flows).
We believe that the impact of time interconnection and small loan companies on the company’s reporting end is related to its payment cycle. The size of the small bag company is expected to be strategically planned in 2019, and it is expected that the operating data will continue to improve in the future.
Investment suggestion: We maintain that the GMV scale in 2019 is expected to reach US $ 30.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.
At 7%, the monetization rate remained stable.
Maintain profit forecast 2019-20 net profit is 12.
8.4 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
73 yuan, maintaining a target price of 12.
4 yuan, corresponding to 24 times the estimate in 2019.
Risk reminders: low expansion speed, decline in service rates, changes in platform rules, and receivable risks.